1,欧洲QE对欧猪债收益率的打压已经不明显
2，欧洲企业比美国企业更依赖银行融资，QE对提振信贷的效果就不一样
3，QE造成本币贬值对出口的提振效果也不一样，欧洲出口竞争力不如美国
4，欧央行内部有德国和欧猪之争，市场对其政策持续性预期也不同
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By Ferdinando Giugliano
Still, there are at least four reasons why the ECB’s version of QE will be very different — and potentially less effective — than those elsewhere.
Bond yields
Central banks purchase large quantities of sovereign bonds as they seek to lower their yields and push investors into riskier assets.
However, interest rates on eurozone bonds have come down sharply since Mario Draghi, ECB president, announced in July 2012 that he would do “whatever it takes” to keep the single currency intact. Yields have continued to fall over the past few months, thanks to slumping inflation and investors’ anticipation of QE.
Today, Italy’s and Spain’s 10-year bonds yield about 1.5 per cent, about half the interest on equivalent US treasuries and UK gilts when the Fed and the BoE announced their own QE programmes. The scope for further decline is therefore limited.
The role of the banks
QE should help businesses by lowering the cost at which they can borrow money. In theory, this should be true regardless of whether corporates raise funds via a bank or directly on the capital markets: in either case, central bank purchases of sovereign debt make government paper less attractive, pushing investors to lend their money elsewhere.
However, work by Nick Butt of the BoE and colleagues has shown that, at least in the UK, QE has not succeeded in boosting lending. The trouble for the ECB is that eurozone businesses are heavily reliant on the banking sector, more so than their US competitors. For every €10 borrowed by European corporates, about eight come from a bank and only two from the capital markets. In the US, it is the other way round.
The success of the ECB’s programme will therefore hinge on the banks’ willingness to lend. On Tuesday, the central bank’s quarterly lending survey revealed that credit standards in the eurozone eased in the past three months of 2014 but remain tight by historical standards.
Exports
Many economists believe that the single most important channel through` which QE will operate in the eurozone is the currency. Asset purchases will reduce interest rates on euro-denominated bonds, prompting investors to search for yields abroad, which will lower the value of the euro. Indeed, markets have already anticipated some of these effects, with the euro falling to 1.16 against the dollar, about 15 per cent below the average of the first half of last year.
The experience of other central banks, however, offers a cautionary tale of how much QE-induced depreciation can help to boost exports. While asset purchases by the BoE have helped to keep the value of the pound low, the UK has continued to run stubbornly high trade deficits. And as Raoul Ruparel of Open Europe, a think-tank, has shown, the steep devaluation of the yen since 2012 has failed to spur any significant increase in Japanese exports.
QE central banks data
One reason for this disappointing performance is the changing nature of international trade. “A lower share of goods’ value is now produced in the euro area territory. This suggests that the improvement in price-competitiveness that stems from a lower euro is less important than in the past,” wrote Michala Marcussen and colleagues of Société Générale in a research note.
Central bank politics
When the BoE and Federal Reserve embarked on their QE programmes, their interest-rate setting bodies rallied unanimously behind the new policy. While Haruhiko Kuroda, BoJ governor, did not enjoy this luxury, his flagship monetary stimulus in April 2013 faced only one dissenter.
QE central banks data
Mr Draghi is unlikely to be as lucky as his colleagues. Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, is widely expected to oppose any QE programme on the grounds that it is excessively risky and would relax the pressure on governments to reform. Sabine Lautenschläger, the German executive board member, has also expressed her scepticism.
These divisions matter as they will curtail the scope of the programme, for example forcing the ECB to set limits over how much risk-sharing there will be on the bond purchases."
标签：QE,效果,欧洲
